To call the past couple weeks a whipsawing mess would be understating the obvious. As you cast your eyes over to the right at the long term chart, the expectations are for a fourth wave here and up to this point it has not disappointed. Fourth waves are typically complicated messes with fits and starts in both directions which challenges even the best of trading systems. This is where weaknesses begin to show in the seemingly never ending run of the third wave. Bulls pin their hopes on another leg to the upside and bears pin their hopes that the top is in. Ultimately they both turn out to be right and wrong at the same time as the fifth wave ensues higher. At that point bulls become jubilant and the bears disillusioned only to have the tables turn soon there after as the fifth wave ends and a more substantial decline begins. The expectations of fourth waves from a minimum perspective should be similar to the same degree second wave in time and/or price. At present it is easy to see that we are very early on both.
Next visiting the ES chart, something interesting has happened. At both the all time high pivot (3) and the next major pivot low 'A', they were not visited by the cash markets. Typically when this happens it is not long after before the cash markets play 'catch up' and finds these price points.
Taking both these into consideration, it would seem the most logical of Elliott Wave structures to cover both the time perspective and hit both of the price points that the cash markets have been left out of would be either a flat or an expanded flat.
So if you've felt a little frustrated over the past couple of weeks, don't be too hard on yourself, that is what fourth waves do, frustrate. Keep your head up and your risk down.
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