Friday Update Postmortem

Well, as always, best laid plans do sometimes get laid to waste and our direct path to a complete five waves down has taken a turn and decided to kill some time.  I'm still looking for the new low, but the path there is going to be less direct from the looks.  Elliott Wave has two structures that I'm considering that continue the direction but eat up time in a much less direct approach.  A diagonal and a triangle.  On the below chart I've outlined my two most preferred paths to complete five waves down from the all time highs and I've also included a couple textbook diagrams of the structures.  Although there is some potential for some continued upside from this point I'm currently not favoring it.

Here is the Friday morning squiggle update.  I'll likely start posting these at night after market close so I have more time, but since this is the first in hopefully a long line we're doing it first thing.  SPX short term expectations are looking for a new low before a more sizeable correction or run back to new all time highs.  As you can see from the green shaded area on the short term chart we are firmly planted in the target zone for what is know in Elliott Wave terms as a 'flat'.  Below is a textbook drawing of a flat and the squiggle count on the actual chart.

INTRO

I'm still working out the kinks of the layout and whatnot, so bear with me.  Anyway, lets get down to things here.  I'm ultimately a bit of a hack market analyst who just happens to be pretty decent with Elliott Wave.  So lets get the ball rolling with a little S&P action.  We had a nice run in 2013 especially considering anyone with a pulse who managed to hit the buy button on January 2nd nailed the bottom for the year.  I think those souls are going to be sorely disappointed this year as we are looking at a much more choppy environment.  So one is going to need to be more of a trader this year then just a blind BTFDer.  I'm still on the fence as to whether we have completed all of the third wave coming up from the 2011 lows, but if we haven't, we are only one direct new ATH away from having a good solid correction if not immediately.  If green box iv? lets go I have zero doubts we'll be visiting yellow box 4? within the next couple of months.  Any mainstream analysts looking for the 1600's this year?  I didn't think so.  

If you haven't heard about the carry trade yet or know what one is then you are going to want to read up on it, because that is going to be the theme for this year.  Carry trade unwind.  When they do, bad things happen.  The USD/JPY is either complete here as a full impulse wave up or it is one wave away from being complete.  This pair just happens to be the same reason that markets are going to have issues.  Hedgies and Banksters alike have been using the Yen as a 'cheap' currency to lever up to buy all kinds of equities goodies, but as the Yen appreciates, wholesale selling across markets to get out of the Yen is going to take place at best, or already started at worst. 

It is getting late and I just wanted to get something up on the first night of operation.  Catch up with anyone who stumbles across this later and has a comment.  G'night.