Thursday, January 30, 2014

INTRO

I'm still working out the kinks of the layout and whatnot, so bear with me.  Anyway, lets get down to things here.  I'm ultimately a bit of a hack market analyst who just happens to be pretty decent with Elliott Wave.  So lets get the ball rolling with a little S&P action.  We had a nice run in 2013 especially considering anyone with a pulse who managed to hit the buy button on January 2nd nailed the bottom for the year.  I think those souls are going to be sorely disappointed this year as we are looking at a much more choppy environment.  So one is going to need to be more of a trader this year then just a blind BTFDer.  I'm still on the fence as to whether we have completed all of the third wave coming up from the 2011 lows, but if we haven't, we are only one direct new ATH away from having a good solid correction if not immediately.  If green box iv? lets go I have zero doubts we'll be visiting yellow box 4? within the next couple of months.  Any mainstream analysts looking for the 1600's this year?  I didn't think so.  

If you haven't heard about the carry trade yet or know what one is then you are going to want to read up on it, because that is going to be the theme for this year.  Carry trade unwind.  When they do, bad things happen.  The USD/JPY is either complete here as a full impulse wave up or it is one wave away from being complete.  This pair just happens to be the same reason that markets are going to have issues.  Hedgies and Banksters alike have been using the Yen as a 'cheap' currency to lever up to buy all kinds of equities goodies, but as the Yen appreciates, wholesale selling across markets to get out of the Yen is going to take place at best, or already started at worst. 

It is getting late and I just wanted to get something up on the first night of operation.  Catch up with anyone who stumbles across this later and has a comment.  G'night.

4 comments:

  1. Nice Work BA, I look forward to reading your blog! :-)

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  2. Nice to read your blog BA, make it a simple solid place!
    Enrique
    (far away in the mountains, deserts and jungle, sometimes popping up as there is internet)

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  3. Thanks fella's. Just something to keep track of where we have been/are in hopes of getting a good read on where we are headed.

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  4. Thanks BA. I like your charts and your perspective. I'll keep watching.

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